Asia Undercovered Round-up: 4 March 2026

Regional Flashpoints and Shifting Power Dynamics into March

This week, Asia has been marked by a shifting political landscape following key elections, democratic backsliding, and a sobering series of escalating armed conflicts. From the perilous "open war" on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border to the sweeping electoral changes in Bangladesh and Nepal, the region is navigating severe geopolitical fault lines.

The Af-Pak ‘Open War’ and Middle Eastern Spillover

On February 26, Pakistan declared a state of "open war" against the Afghan Taliban. Pakistani military forces have launched deep airstrikes into major Afghan cities like Kabul and Kandahar, claiming these are self-defense measures against the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The continued cross-border bombardment has caused a severe humanitarian crisis, with the UN reporting at least 42 Afghan civilians killed and thousands displaced.

Simultaneously, following the recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran, widespread anti-American and anti-Israel protests erupted across Pakistan, an allied nation with the world's second-largest Shia population. The unrest turned deadly, resulting in at least 26 deaths nationwide as protesters stormed the US consulate in Karachi, where US Marines reportedly fired upon the crowds breaching the compound.

Seulki’s Take: The Trap of "Self-Defense" 

The recent military actions by Pakistan, the US, and Israel share a disturbing commonality: the weaponization of "self-defense" rhetoric. Justifying these preemptive strikes echoes the exact logic used during the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. If the international community accepts preemptive strikes based on arbitrary definitions of threats, the fundamental principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty will collapse, trapping the globe in a relentless cycle of retaliation.

The Collapse of India-Bangladesh Relations

Following the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, the newly elected Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has secured a staggering two-thirds majority in parliament. However, relations between Dhaka and New Delhi have plunged to a 54-year low.

The primary sticking point is India's continued sheltering of Hasina, who has been sentenced to death by Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal for the violent crackdown on student protesters. To many Bangladeshis, India's refusal to extradite her proves that New Delhi prioritized a single autocrat over 177 million citizens. This deep-seated animosity has even killed regional cricket diplomacy, with Bangladesh boycotting the T20 World Cup in India after the Indian Premier League (IPL) dropped a Bangladeshi player due to nationalist outrage on social media.

Myanmar: Junta's Maneuvers and the Cost of Chinese Expansion

Myanmar's military junta is actively engineering a controlled transition to a facade of civilian rule. Retired General Khin Yi is slated to become the powerful lower house speaker following an election dominated by the military-backed USDP, ensuring Min Aung Hlaing can assume the presidency while maintaining absolute military control. Dunia, a South Korea-based independent non-profit newsroom, plans to investigate the 2008 Myanmar constitution, which guaranteed a military quota in parliament, over the coming months.

A recent "humanitarian" amnesty of 7,337 political prisoners on Peasants' Day has been widely condemned by human rights groups as a deceptive propaganda tool.

Meanwhile, in Northern Shan State, a dangerous standoff has emerged between the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). This conflict is driven less by territorial disputes and more by the aggressive influx of unregulated Chinese investments in MNDAA-controlled areas. Widespread land confiscations, forced assimilation into Chinese culture, and the proliferation of illicit KTVs and gambling hubs have severely alienated local ethnic communities. Amidst this complex web of proxy interests, the true spirit of the revolution lives on in fighters like the late Chin activist Salai Ngun San Aung, who took up arms not merely to defeat the junta, but to secure genuine self-determination and reclaim the stolen identities of Myanmar's ethnic peoples.

Democratic Backsliding and the Gen Z Pushback

• Philippines: Marking 40 years since the historic People Power Revolution ousted dictator Ferdinand Marcos, his family is arguably stronger than ever. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. recently secured a one-year immunity from impeachment proceedings with overwhelming congressional support, effectively shielding his power until 2027. Listen to this comprehensive podcast by the BBC.
• Laos & Cambodia: The repression of civil society continues across Southeast Asia. In Laos, prominent dissident Sisay Luangmonda was found dead shortly after being arrested by the military, and the government has refused to investigate. In Cambodia, the Supreme Court denied bail to five 'Mother Nature' environmental activists. At the same time, Cambodia is exercising pragmatic "portfolio management" diplomacy by joining the Trump administration's Board of Peace to balance risks while remaining deeply dependent on China.
• Nepal: The country faces a pivotal institutional test in its upcoming general elections. Following a Gen Z-led uprising against corruption, rapper-turned-mayor Balen Shah is mounting a massive social media-driven campaign against veteran politician K.P. Sharma Oli. The election will determine if Nepal can balance its urgent hunger for change with the stabilization of its democratic institutions.

Asia Undercovered features round-ups and in-depth analysis of the news, events, trends, and people changing Asia, but not getting enough attention in the US media. It is curated by journalist Seulki Lee, the founder and executive director of the Asian investigative journalism network Dunia.

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